Vietnam Spice Market Update – October 2026: Black Pepper, Cassia, and Star Anise Maintain Strong Year-on-Year Momentum

09/11/2026

In our October and Week 45 Market Report, PTEXIM CORP highlights key trade flows across Vietnam's core spice sectors alongside an exclusive 30-year study on the correlation between El Niño cycles and black pepper prices. (Download the full PDF report with complete statistical charts and FOB price lists at the bottom of this page).

Black Pepper: 10-Month Exports Surpass USD 1.53 Billion

Price Dynamics: In Week 45 (Nov 1–8, 2026), domestic black pepper prices settled at 136,000 VND/kg (-0.37% from 136,500 VND/kg at the start of the week). Year-to-date (from 152,000 VND/kg on Jan 1, 2026), prices have adjusted down by 10.5%.
October 2026 Performance: Vietnam exported 21,973 MT worth USD 143.7 million (-14.1% in volume and -12.9% in value MoM, but rebounding strongly by +13.1% YoY). The US (5,658 MT) and China (3,424 MT, +182.0% YoY) accounted for 41.3% of October's total shipments.
10 Months 2026 (Jan–Oct): Cumulative exports reached 237,706 MT valued at USD 1.5373 billion (+15.2% or +31,279 MT in volume, and +10.3% in value YoY). Asia led with 112,727 MT (47.4% share, +15.6% YoY), driven by China (28,328 MT, +71.0%) and Thailand (9,385 MT, +52.5%). Shipments to the Americas surged 28.2% to 62,743 MT (USA at 56,279 MT, +27.1%; Canada up +55.1% to 3,861 MT), while Europe reached 48,775 MT (+2.9% YoY) and Africa rose 6.9% to 13,461 MT.
Import Trends: October imports slowed to 1,425 MT (USD 8.6 million, -13.7% MoM). Cumulative 10M 2026 imports totaled 50,079 MT (USD 289 million, +32.5% YoY), with Cambodia supplying 56.6% of total inflows.

Macro Drivers & 30-Year El Niño Deep Research (1995–2026)

Market Influences: Favorable weather conditions (few storms, no extreme heat) support a stable to cautiously better next-crop outlook. Indirect US–Iran talks signal potential relief for freight and insurance risks, while a firmer VND (-2.8% in bank USD rates over three months, quoted at 25,370–25,780 VND/USD on Nov 6) limits room for USD FOB price concessions.
El Niño & Pepper Prices: Our 30-year data reveals that three historical "Super El Niño" events directly triggered three major price peaks: 1997–1998 (ONI > 2.4, ~100,000 VND/kg peak), 2015–2016 (ONI = 2.6, all-time high of 200,000–230,000 VND/kg), and 2023–2026 (ONI 1.8–2.0, breaking the 38,000 VND/kg low into a 150,000–180,000 VND/kg range). Because pepper vines require 3–4 years from planting to stable harvest, global supply faces a 3–4 year recovery lag after El Niño droughts.

Cassia Cinnamon & Star Anise: Strong Export Acceleration

Cassia Cinnamon: October exports rose 6.7% MoM to 10,453 MT (USD 33.1 million). In 10M 2026, shipments reached 103,684 MT worth USD 264.5 million (+4.2% in volume and +6.0% in revenue YoY). India remained the #1 buyer at 39,438 MT—2.9x the volume shipped to the #2 market, the USA (13,621 MT).
Star Anise: October shipments surged to 1,959 MT worth USD 7.0 million (+18.2% in volume MoM and +177.9% YoY), led by India at 1,253 MT (64% share, +290.3% YoY). Cumulative 10M 2026 exports reached 13,221 MT (+11.1% YoY), dominated by India (8,212 MT - 75.4%) and the USA (964 MT - 8.8%).

👉 DOWNLOAD THE FULL OCTOBER 2026 MARKET REPORT & FOB PRICE LIST (PDF) HERE

Partner with PTEXIM CORP — Tailored Spice Solutions for Every Market Need Backed by three specialized manufacturing facilities and sustainable sourcing programs, PTEXIM CORP is committed to meeting diverse global spice requirements and customizing specifications to fit each client's exact needs. Whether you require Conventional, Steam Sterilized (HTST), EU-Compliant, or Certified Organic grades across Black & White Pepper, Cassia Cinnamon, Star Anise, Ginger, Turmeric, Galangal, and other herbs & spices, we deliver guaranteed compliance—including Cassia with Lead (exceeding US/EU limits), tailored Coumarin thresholds (2000ppm or 3000ppm), and Metal Powder (KFDA standard)—supported by world-class certifications (USDA Organic, EU Organic, Rainforest Alliance, UEBT, BRCGS, Halal, Kosher, FDA).

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